New Legendary Artifact - Week Ahead 10/2

[TheWise]

Greetings Leaders,

This week you can look forward to a brand new Legendary Artifact! You’ll also be able to instantly upgrade your Artifact Star Levels with discounted resource prices. Plus continue progressing through the Season with plenty of Free Troop Tactics in this week’s Episodes. All that and more in the week ahead!

Boosted Conqueror’s Chests
We’ve decided to extend the availability of the Conqueror’s Chests from the Summer for the Ages Event! Leaders participating in World Wars can continue to expect these improved rewards to continue past 10/15 for a limited time.

Episodes 10/5 - 10/12

Model T Episode
This episode stocks you up on a multitude of Troop Tactics including M45 Patton Tank, P-40 Warhawk, the Heavy Tank Mk4, and more!

Premium Pass holders can look forward to acquiring the Bazooka Tower for some extra base defense. You’ll also find an 8h Instant Retrain Blessing, B-45 Tornado and Heavy Tank Mk6 Troop Tactics, and more!

Ranking within the top 100 on Global Leaderboards can get you the Vz-9 Avrocar Legendary Artifact!

Asymmetrical Warfare Episode
The Free Track on the Asymmetrical Warfare Episode gets you some powerful Troop Tactics including the F-15 STOL, AT-4 Bazooka, Night Witch, and more!

Premium Pass holders will be able to stock up on Tupolev Tu-160 and Super Stallion Troop Tactics. You can also expect Heavy Tank Legendary Artifact Chests, Helgö Buddha Legendary Artifact Chests, and Season 5 Chests!

Events

Artifact Quality Event 10/3 - 10/10
The Artifact Unlock Event has begun! This is a perfect time to increase the Star Level of your Artifacts. For the duration of this event:

• All Supplies, Researchers, and Benefactors costs to Unlock are reduced by 20%.
• Artifacts unlock INSTANTLY!

Take advantage of your new benefits right away during the Artifact Unlock Event!

Sputnik 1 10/1 - 10/7
This week is our Sputnik Event!

Sputnik 1, launched by the Soviet Union into low Earth orbit on October 4, 1957, was the first artificial Earth satellite. The satellite, named ‘Object PS-1’, completed 326 orbits in its first three weeks before its batteries depleted. After the batteries died, PS-1 silently orbited for another two months before falling back into Earth’s atmosphere. In total, it completed 1440 orbits and traveled more than 70 million km.

Sputnik 1 was a radio transmitter, broadcasting radio pulses that were easily detectable even by radio amateurs. The satellite also provided new information about our planet, allowing scientists to better measure the density of the upper atmosphere.

The success of Sputnik 1 is a major milestone in the history of humanity. It ushered in a new era, triggering the Space Race and a swath of new political and scientific developments."


Enjoy these discounts for a limited time!

33% off the following General upgrades:
• Joan of Arc
• MacArthur
• Churchill
• Petra Herrera

Legendary Step-Ups 10/2 - 10/9

British Kettle Drum Chest Step-Up
You can obtain multiple chances at the brand-new British Kettle Drum Legendary Artifact! This Step-Up sale will exclusively have chests with various rewards including the New Legendary Artifact.

Cryolophosaurus Skull Guaranteed Step-Up
In this Step-Up sale you can acquire multiple chances at the Legendary Artifact Cryolophosaurus Skull. Completing all steps in the sale will guarantee you this Legendary Artifact!

 

[Nikolay]

BHG all week:

 

[jpsfm]

BHG all week:
View attachment 10822

1% means that if every chest worths 3€ give or take, they sell each legendary for about 300€… for a game that’s big money!

 

[Nikolay]

1% means that if every chest worths 3€ give or take, they sell each legendary for about 300€… for a game that’s big money!

You should study probability theory. In fact, you can open 1000 chests and never get an artifact. It's random. Each chest has a 1% chance. There is no counter that would count the number of already opened chests

 

[gxe1134]

Okay, I did some quick math.

If we assume a 1% chance of winning, and each attempt is independent, then in order to have a 95% confidence that we win, it would take 230 attempts.

(By "quick math", what I actually did was ask ChatGPT this question: "If a contest has a 1% chance of winning and you're allowed to enter the contest as many times as possible, how many times would I have to enter the contest to have a 95% confidence that I would win?")

So at 3 euros per attempt, after spending about 700 euros you would have a 95% chance of winning it.

 

[jpsfm]

You should study probability theory. In fact, you can open 1000 chests and never get an artifact. It's random. Each chest has a 1% chance. There is no counter that would count the number of already opened chests

I believe you should study probability theory. 1% chance means exactly what it says. Of course you can open 1000 chests and get nothing. You may open 1 and get it.But in infinity chests you get 1 legendary per 100 hundred chests. That’s how any company calculate their possible revenue. You can never be 100% accurate with probabilities but you can get real close

 

[gxe1134]

I believe you should study probability theory. 1% chance means exactly what it says. Of course you can open 1000 chests and get nothing. You may open 1 and get it.But in infinity chests you get 1 legendary per 100 hundred chests. That’s how any company calculate their possible revenue. You can never be 100% accurate with probabilities but you can get real close

Sorry man, that's not how probability works. Note that I said with a 95% confidence. That's the key to the formula. Another way of looking at it is this way: "If I open 230 chests, what is the likelihood that I haven't won yet?" and that would give you a 95% chance that you did win.

Of course you could open 1000 chests and not win, but that's improbable. You could also win on your first chest, and those odds would be 1%.

From Professor ChatGPT:

We want to find the minimum number of entries needed to have a cumulative probability of winning (P(X >= 1)) at least 95%. This means we want to find the smallest n for which P(X >= 1) ≥ 0.95.

Using a binomial cumulative probability calculator or software, we can determine the number of entries required to achieve a 95% confidence level.


For example, using a calculator like R, we can run the following code to find n:


n <- 1
while (pbinom(0, n, 0.01, lower.tail = FALSE) < 0.95) {
n <- n + 1
}
n
Running this code will give us the minimum number of entries needed to have a 95% confidence. In this case, it would be approximately 230 entries.

Interestingly, I just ran that code through https://rdrr.io/snippets/ and it actually gave an output of 299. So approximately 300 chests would have to be opened in order to have a 95% confidence that you win.

I think we can all agree this is bad bet.

 

[Monte Carlo]

In the token calendar threads, I made a similar comment. If they are selling the most sought after war legendary’s in chests for $$$, it’s unlikely they get offered anytime soon for free at Marco Polo.

 

[Lyonz]

VZ-9 another I don’t need… Asdic/WarClub I’m after!